Peak Oil and Peak Oil Demand

The term "peak oil" has been used since the 1950's to refer to the time in the future when mankind will begin to run out of petroleum. The "peak" refers to the point where maximum production of oil no longer keeps pace with worldwide demand. Since the 1950's some economists and oil-industry analysts, sometimes regarded as chronic pessimists by their colleagues, have been warning about this time when the world will begin to run out of oil, foreseeing massive worldwide economic collapse in a world which needs oil to live. People like Bob Lutz had phrases like "$60 a gallon for gasoline" and "fighting in the streets over scraps of meat" on their lips. When Lutz spearheaded the project to make the Chevrolet Volt, the first electric vehicle ever willingly manufactured by General Motors, he didn't believe global warming was real. I don't know what he thinks about it now. He's not a complete moron, by no means. He's just spent his entire long life in a very conservative culture.

More recently, however, another term has begun to be used: "peak oil demand." This refers to the time in the future when worldwide demand for oil will begin to decrease. When it came to peak oil, there was always great disagreement among experts. It's hard to tell how much of the world's oil can be practically mined. There are factors such as future improvement in oil-extraction technology. There is now much more of a consensus about peak oil demand: the great majority of those who specialize in such things predict that somewhere between the 2020's and the 2040's, demand will begin to decrease. There are a few who say that peak oil demand will NEVER occur. These people are either lying, to prop up oil futures or for some other reasons, or they are awfully optimistic, if they really believe that the global demand for and consumption of oil will rise FOREVER. I think such optimism would just about have to include the belief that climate change is a Chinese hoax.

I think we can disregard the peak-oil-demand-will-never-happen crowd as a crazy fringe, although their numbers may be large enough to be a problem, like the numbers of climate-change deniers.

The richest people in the world may lie now and then about what they believe, but their beliefs tend to be pretty practical. When they discuss peak oil demand in the financial media, they routinely mention factors such as changing technology. Trains and ships have been converting to electric-hybrid engines for some time, and are on their way to all-electric. Why? Because the people who own and operate trains and ships don't like to waste money. And of course, many trains have already been all-electric for a very long time. Amurrkins, note the wires just above the trains:

Electric cars will replace ones that burn gasoline or diesel, the only question is, how quickly. Solar and wind are already rapidly replacing coal, oil and gas for the purpose of generating electricity, why? Same as the answer about the trains and ships: because solar and wind are cheaper, and their cost savings over coal, oil and gas keep getting bigger.

Strangely, though, when experts get together in places like CNBC to discuss when peak oil demand will occur, there are certain very relevant things which they tend not to mention. Things like climate change, wetlands, lung cancer, wildfires, biodiversity and catastrophic storms.

Maybe they're only half-smart.