Thursday, May 12, 2016

If You Think Bernie Still Has A Chance, You Can't Do Math

To an article with the headline "Why Is Bernie Still Running," a reader responded, "Because he's won 10 of the last 15 states -- what part of that don't you understand?"

I don't even understand which 10 and 15 states you mean, because since March 15 there've been 17 state primaries plus Guam and Democrats Abroad (and not counting March 15 there've been 12 state primaries and Guam and Democrats Abroad), and Bernie has won 10 of those states plus Democrats Abroad, and Hillary won the other 7 states plus Guam.

If we count delegates instead of states -- which is what this is about, whether you understand why or not -- then since March 15, including March 15, Bernie has won 759 delegates, and Hillary has won 766. Before March 15, Hillary was ahead by 762 delegates, and now she's ahead by 769. When she gets 148 more, she will have clinched this.

Yes, I'm counting the superdelegates. Why? Because I haven't heard of one single superdelgate currently committed to Hillary who's mentioned a possibility that he or she might change his or her mind and switch to Bernie.

And why would they? The supergelegates are the very same Democratic politicians Bernie has been verbally abusing nonstop on his campaign, complaining that they've rigged the primaries and that they're corrupt, yada yada. I salute them for so rarely having lost their tempers in public so far when the topic has been Bernie.

148 to go. It's mathematically possible that Hillary might get all 148 of them before the California primary on June 7. Mathematically possible, but she won't. She also won't get none of them. She could get very nearly 148 more before June 7. On June 7, there will be 6 Democratic primaries with a total of 694 committed, non-super delegates at stake, including the 475 at stake in California. If Hillary wins 0 delegates anywhere from here on out except in California, she would need 31% of the committed, non-super California delegates. 148 is 31% of 475. Hillary is averaging 52.5% in polls of likely voters in the California primary. And since March, her numbers in California have been going steadily up.

I know that this is a useless post. I know that the world is divided into those who are paying no attention to the Democratic primaries, those who can do the math and have done it, and those who either can't do the math or refuse to do it, and also refuse to listen to those of us who can and have. But maybe the bright light I've shown on the ridiculousness of all this has given a chuckle to some of those of us who can and have, and we can use some good laughs.

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