Sunday, October 9, 2016

2005 Trump Tape ----storm, Day 3: The Headlines

Press TV: Most GOP voters back Trump despite leaked clip: POLL

"Most still back him" is the glass-half-full way of looking at it. The glass-half-empty way is: some have stopped backing him because of the tape. How many? Could be double digits. And that's huge, because he was already behind in the polls before the tape went public on Friday, and a lot of states are close. Remember, it doesn't matter who gets the most votes overall in the country (although Hillary is ahead there too); it matters who gets the most electoral votes.

CBS News: Donald Trump lashes out on Twitter at Republicans abandoning him over lewd tape

Again with these Tweets, a lot of people, notably Donald himself, are looking at things in a glass-half-full way. He's talking about how his supporters are disgusted with the "Republican elite," these "self-righteous hypocrites" who are abandoning him.

He's playing to his base, his hard-core support, and they love him for it. The glass-half-empty way of looking at this is that his base isn't getting any bigger, and his base alone isn't enough to elect him, and the lashing out makes him look like a crazed vengeful douchebag, and will mostly likely lose him votes among the other demographics which he needs: undecided voters and those who are currently backing Johnson or Stein.

NBCNews.com: Polls: Clinton Ahead in Florida, Pennsylvania

Ahead by 3 percent in Florida and 12 percent in Pennsylvania, to be exact. In polls which were conducted and done before Friday, before the 2005 tape surfaced, to be more exact. Keep in mind, the tape isn't the only thing that's been hurting him. The first debate hurt him. The Veep debate didn't help him at all, and Pence's reluctance to get behind Trump in a big way during that debate may have hurt him a little. And reports of Trump encouraging his supporters to interfere with vote in Pennsylvania may have hurt him in Pennsylvania a lot. You come in a big obvious crude way to try to interfere with people's voting rights, how do those people usually react? They usually fight back. it generally backfires big-time.

In other pre-tape-----storm polls, Ohio went from looking like it was going to Trump to looking dead even, and Iowa, South Carolina and Mississippi went from likely Trump to barely Trump. Trump's lead is getting smaller in other states too. I don't want to take an early victory lap like I did long before October in 2008 and 2012, because the 2016 Presidential election is an absolutely-unique, old, rules don't apply type of situation. So I'll just stick to the objective truth: It takes 270 electoral votes to become President. The polls indicate that if the election were held today and Hillary lost every single state where it's close, she still be elected with about 280 electoral votes. The polls seem to indicate that her total would probably be over 330, maybe over 360. And that's pre-tape. And the poll number are constantly getting better for her.

Christian Science Monitor: more about tweets from Donald from today: Increasingly alone, Trump lashes out at Bill Clinton before debate. Hours before a critical presidential debate, a damaged but defiant Donald Trump seized on never-proved sexual allegations against Hillary Clinton's husband as a growing group of Republican leaders called on the New York businessman to abandon his ...

So many ways all at once that Donald is damaging himself with this: 1) Never-proven allegations vs videotape? Videotape wins, Donald loses. The only people even interested in these allegations are the ones who are already with Trump: the morons who also believe that Obama is a secret Kenyan Muslim terrorist and that Hillary eats babies. Lashing out about this wins him no votes. The only question is how many votes it loses him. 2) Donald's not running against Bill, he's running against Hillary. 3) Already back in 1998, when Bill was still President, the great majority of the US was already tired of the GOP effort to make a scandal out of his sex life. They're 18 years' worth more tired of it now.

BuzzFeed News: The Apprentice Under Pressure To Release Unaired Trump Footage. Pressure is building on The Apprentice producers to release unaired raw footage of the show after Friday's release of a 2005 hot mic video of Donald Trump apparently bragging about sexually assaulting women and trying to have sex with a married woman.

How many more clips will surface, and how appalling will they be? I have to guess: lots of them, and very. Why? 1) Because Trump is who he is, because he's got such a big mouth, and because he's spent so much time near so many microphones and cameras. 2) Because people Trump has intimidated into hiding the worst stuff until will become less intimidated as Trump continues to self-destruct, and as they see others releasing tape and video and not being destroyed. It almost makes me wish we could postpone the election until March, or June, because I don't see any way that all of this can go except to get worse and worse for Trump and for the Republicans.

Oh, by the way, did you notice all the leaks from Julian Assange last week, which he had said could be so devastating for the Clinton campaign? That's all right: nobody else noticed them either.

1 comment: