It's discouraging, how hard it is to get through to some people with the math showing that Hillary will be nominated.
I mean, obviously, there is SOME respect for math in our society, or computers wouldn't work and buildings and bridges would collapse before they were built and we'd all be living in caves and eating bugs out of each other's hair. But somehow, in this situation, those who can do math are mistrusted by -- how many people are we talking about? How many hardcore Bernie holdouts are left who truly believe he can be the nominee? That's a somewhat more difficult math problem.
How can we extrapolate from the numbers of people in Bernie's rallies, and the numbers of those still saying never-say-die on their blogs and in other media, to the total number of mathematically-illiterate true believers?
I would think that some of those who seem like true believers are only pretending to be. Jeff Weaver, for example. Presumably, that scary bastard is gettin' paid. Who knows what he actually thinks.
What are your estimates of the total number of those who still can't see that Bernie has no chance at the nomination? Did the West Virginia primary actually make that number rise? When -- if ever -- will the number shrink to statistical irrelevance?
How many people will believe for the rest of their lives that Bernie actually won the nomination and that Hillary -- somehow -- stole it? Is Bernie among that number?
C'mon, we can have some real math-geeky fun with this. I have little formal training in math, but to make up for that, I'm autistic and have some unusual raw ability to understand numbers. I would love to see formulas and charts, I hope I'll be able to keep up.
Showing posts with label arithmetic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label arithmetic. Show all posts
Thursday, May 12, 2016
If You Think Bernie Still Has A Chance, You Can't Do Math
To an article with the headline "Why Is Bernie Still Running," a reader responded, "Because he's won 10 of the last 15 states -- what part of that don't you understand?"
I don't even understand which 10 and 15 states you mean, because since March 15 there've been 17 state primaries plus Guam and Democrats Abroad (and not counting March 15 there've been 12 state primaries and Guam and Democrats Abroad), and Bernie has won 10 of those states plus Democrats Abroad, and Hillary won the other 7 states plus Guam.
If we count delegates instead of states -- which is what this is about, whether you understand why or not -- then since March 15, including March 15, Bernie has won 759 delegates, and Hillary has won 766. Before March 15, Hillary was ahead by 762 delegates, and now she's ahead by 769. When she gets 148 more, she will have clinched this.
Yes, I'm counting the superdelegates. Why? Because I haven't heard of one single superdelgate currently committed to Hillary who's mentioned a possibility that he or she might change his or her mind and switch to Bernie.
And why would they? The supergelegates are the very same Democratic politicians Bernie has been verbally abusing nonstop on his campaign, complaining that they've rigged the primaries and that they're corrupt, yada yada. I salute them for so rarely having lost their tempers in public so far when the topic has been Bernie.
148 to go. It's mathematically possible that Hillary might get all 148 of them before the California primary on June 7. Mathematically possible, but she won't. She also won't get none of them. She could get very nearly 148 more before June 7. On June 7, there will be 6 Democratic primaries with a total of 694 committed, non-super delegates at stake, including the 475 at stake in California. If Hillary wins 0 delegates anywhere from here on out except in California, she would need 31% of the committed, non-super California delegates. 148 is 31% of 475. Hillary is averaging 52.5% in polls of likely voters in the California primary. And since March, her numbers in California have been going steadily up.
I know that this is a useless post. I know that the world is divided into those who are paying no attention to the Democratic primaries, those who can do the math and have done it, and those who either can't do the math or refuse to do it, and also refuse to listen to those of us who can and have. But maybe the bright light I've shown on the ridiculousness of all this has given a chuckle to some of those of us who can and have, and we can use some good laughs.
I don't even understand which 10 and 15 states you mean, because since March 15 there've been 17 state primaries plus Guam and Democrats Abroad (and not counting March 15 there've been 12 state primaries and Guam and Democrats Abroad), and Bernie has won 10 of those states plus Democrats Abroad, and Hillary won the other 7 states plus Guam.
If we count delegates instead of states -- which is what this is about, whether you understand why or not -- then since March 15, including March 15, Bernie has won 759 delegates, and Hillary has won 766. Before March 15, Hillary was ahead by 762 delegates, and now she's ahead by 769. When she gets 148 more, she will have clinched this.
Yes, I'm counting the superdelegates. Why? Because I haven't heard of one single superdelgate currently committed to Hillary who's mentioned a possibility that he or she might change his or her mind and switch to Bernie.
And why would they? The supergelegates are the very same Democratic politicians Bernie has been verbally abusing nonstop on his campaign, complaining that they've rigged the primaries and that they're corrupt, yada yada. I salute them for so rarely having lost their tempers in public so far when the topic has been Bernie.
148 to go. It's mathematically possible that Hillary might get all 148 of them before the California primary on June 7. Mathematically possible, but she won't. She also won't get none of them. She could get very nearly 148 more before June 7. On June 7, there will be 6 Democratic primaries with a total of 694 committed, non-super delegates at stake, including the 475 at stake in California. If Hillary wins 0 delegates anywhere from here on out except in California, she would need 31% of the committed, non-super California delegates. 148 is 31% of 475. Hillary is averaging 52.5% in polls of likely voters in the California primary. And since March, her numbers in California have been going steadily up.
I know that this is a useless post. I know that the world is divided into those who are paying no attention to the Democratic primaries, those who can do the math and have done it, and those who either can't do the math or refuse to do it, and also refuse to listen to those of us who can and have. But maybe the bright light I've shown on the ridiculousness of all this has given a chuckle to some of those of us who can and have, and we can use some good laughs.
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Bernie Said Global Warming Is The Greatest Threat To National Security...
...and Hillary lost West Virginia because she didn't pander to coal miners by telling them their mining jobs would last forever. That, ladies and germs, is whatcha call irony.
Bernie called his win in West Virginia a "tremendous victory." He gained 2 delegates on Hillary. 2 down, 769 to go. Tremendous. He said, "We can do arithmetic," and the crowd (in Washington state) went wild. But they can't. And they don't listen to people who can.
Who says, over and over, that they can do arithmetic? People who can't. It wasn't Michael who said over and over that he was smart, it was Fredo.
Yes, Hillary broke the rules by having a private email server. Colin Powell and Condaleeza Rice broke the same rules. And while Hillary was using the private server she wasn't supposed to be using, the Chinese hacked the State Department email server. You can't make up good stuff like this. What a shame nobody notices it.
What's the greatest threat to the security of the world? Stupidity. What did nobody see coming in the 2016 Presidential campaign? How stupid Bernie is. Those reporters Bernie smugly tells more and more often not to moan or roll their eyes at him, they're moaning and rolling their eyes because they can do the math. Those superdelegates even Bernie admits he would need to get the nomination? They are the very same politicians Bernie keeps trashing, the ones he claims have been thwarting him and "the will of the people" at every turn.
Christopher Columbus lived until 1506, believing until the end that he had sailed to Asia. Will Bernie go to his grave believing that the race between himself and Hillary was close and that the nomination process was conducted unfairly and that he would've won in a fair fight?
Will he ever actually concede? Will he be dragged off of the convention stage, raving, literally unable to let go of the rush to which he's become addicted, the rush of pleasing those crowds? Will he refuse to concede and set off a riot of morons?
Bernie called his win in West Virginia a "tremendous victory." He gained 2 delegates on Hillary. 2 down, 769 to go. Tremendous. He said, "We can do arithmetic," and the crowd (in Washington state) went wild. But they can't. And they don't listen to people who can.
Who says, over and over, that they can do arithmetic? People who can't. It wasn't Michael who said over and over that he was smart, it was Fredo.
Yes, Hillary broke the rules by having a private email server. Colin Powell and Condaleeza Rice broke the same rules. And while Hillary was using the private server she wasn't supposed to be using, the Chinese hacked the State Department email server. You can't make up good stuff like this. What a shame nobody notices it.
What's the greatest threat to the security of the world? Stupidity. What did nobody see coming in the 2016 Presidential campaign? How stupid Bernie is. Those reporters Bernie smugly tells more and more often not to moan or roll their eyes at him, they're moaning and rolling their eyes because they can do the math. Those superdelegates even Bernie admits he would need to get the nomination? They are the very same politicians Bernie keeps trashing, the ones he claims have been thwarting him and "the will of the people" at every turn.
Christopher Columbus lived until 1506, believing until the end that he had sailed to Asia. Will Bernie go to his grave believing that the race between himself and Hillary was close and that the nomination process was conducted unfairly and that he would've won in a fair fight?
Will he ever actually concede? Will he be dragged off of the convention stage, raving, literally unable to let go of the rush to which he's become addicted, the rush of pleasing those crowds? Will he refuse to concede and set off a riot of morons?
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Election Season Math 2016
(Been a while since we played the "arguing with" schtick here on this blog. See if you can spot some of the mistakes. As always, this is real. I for one wouldn't want to make such stuff up.)
ME: 8 years ago today I was supporting Obama and complaining because Hillary hadn't dropped out.
1: It's funny, killary is in the same position she was in with Obama, and Obama still won. Sanders still has a great chance.
2: Maybe that's why Clinton supporters keep insisting that Bernie should drop out.
1: Exactly
3: Hillary needs to drop out. The fact that running her would risk losing the GE to Trump over Bernie's much more assured victory means she can't drop out soon enough.
ME: "killary is in the same position she was in with Obama" 8 years ago today Hillary was 342 delegates behind Obama, 2021 to 1679, and in 2008 California was already over. Today she's 774 delegates ahead of Bernie, 2218 to 1444. 8 years ago today she was in a position similar to where Bernie is now.
1: I take it you didn't follow the election between killary and Obama.
ME: Yeah, I did. I worked on the Obama campaign a little.
1: Pledged delegates Hillary 1,683 Sanders 1,362 2016. Super delegates don't count as they change. But yes, Obama was behind all the way until the end. As she held the super delegates. Deja vu.
ME: Somebody help me. *expletive deleted*
1: I love how you use the end delegate count to try to say Obama was winning the whole time. Sanders has won every open primary. Killary can only win closed primaries where independent voters can't vote. Obama got his lead in pledged delegates with the Missouri primary. He was behind her the whole time before that. Obama got his lead in pledged delegates with the Missouri primary. He was behind her the whole time before that.
ME: 8 years ago today I was supporting Obama and complaining because Hillary hadn't dropped out.
1: It's funny, killary is in the same position she was in with Obama, and Obama still won. Sanders still has a great chance.
2: Maybe that's why Clinton supporters keep insisting that Bernie should drop out.
1: Exactly
3: Hillary needs to drop out. The fact that running her would risk losing the GE to Trump over Bernie's much more assured victory means she can't drop out soon enough.
ME: "killary is in the same position she was in with Obama" 8 years ago today Hillary was 342 delegates behind Obama, 2021 to 1679, and in 2008 California was already over. Today she's 774 delegates ahead of Bernie, 2218 to 1444. 8 years ago today she was in a position similar to where Bernie is now.
1: I take it you didn't follow the election between killary and Obama.
ME: Yeah, I did. I worked on the Obama campaign a little.
1: Pledged delegates Hillary 1,683 Sanders 1,362 2016. Super delegates don't count as they change. But yes, Obama was behind all the way until the end. As she held the super delegates. Deja vu.
ME: Somebody help me. *expletive deleted*
1: I love how you use the end delegate count to try to say Obama was winning the whole time. Sanders has won every open primary. Killary can only win closed primaries where independent voters can't vote. Obama got his lead in pledged delegates with the Missouri primary. He was behind her the whole time before that. Obama got his lead in pledged delegates with the Missouri primary. He was behind her the whole time before that.
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