Headline at NBCNews.com: "Bernie Sanders Doesn't Say No to Hypothetical Clinton VP Slot."
Headline on the TIME website: "Bernie Sanders Says Superdelegates Should Consider Hillary Clinton's Email Scandal."
That combination is sort of hard to read.
Would Hillary ever consider offering the VP slot to Bernie? Or is she already planning how to destroy his political career after the election, whether she wins or loses? I honestly couldn't blame her either way.
A Washington Post article begins: "The math is clear: To come from behind and win the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. Bernie Sanders needs a huge win in the last major contest of the Democratic presidential primary season — California."
No. Actually, the math clearly says that Hillary has got the nomination locked up and that not even a huge win in California can change that.
Speaking of math and a huge win in California -- I don't see any math anywhere which suggests that Bernie will score a huge win in California (which wouldn't get him the nomination anyway). Last week two polls about the California Democratic primary were released. One said Hillary was up by 18 points and the other said she was up by 2 points. Why did almost every MSM news outlet give heavy coverage to the poll that said it's close and no coverage to the one that said Hillary is blowing him out?
Mendacity? Or stupidity? (And which would be worse?)
A headline at PoliticusUSA says Diane Feinstein Uses Math To Show Bernie Sanders That It's All But Over. You can follow the link and see if you agree that that's what Feinstein is doing. To me, it reads more as if Feinstein is struggling to remain diplomatic and keep from losing her temper over the way that Bernie still has not yielded to simple math and withdrawn.
I lost the struggle to stay diplomatic about the math back in March.
Several headlines report that Bernie is calling for the removal of some Democratic party leaders from their positions in the convention because they are "allies" of Hillary.
Mother of Sweating Jesus. The whole Democratic Party are allies of Hillary, because she's the Presidential nominee, and because the Presidential election is very important. All of those superdelegates Bernie is hallucinating about leaving Hillary, are her allies. We're kind of in this together. And a lot of Democrats are still assuming that Bernie is with us.
I hope so. I surely do.
I also hope that the party leadership won't give Bernie one more convention concession until he does something to earn it. (I would like to take this opportunity to point out that Bernie has only been a Democrat since 2015, and that he continues to behave an awful lot like an Independent.) And as I've mentioned before on this blog, there's basically one thing he can do to earn the party's support -- support the party's Presidential nominee.
It's basically that one thing, and doing things like endorsing the Democratic challenger of the chairperson of the Democratic National Committee (Can anyone even remember why he got mad at her? It was something to do with her publicly demonstrating that she was competent enough in math to know that Hillary is the nominee, wasn't it? Do we want political leaders who are competent in math, or do we want Republicans and Bernie Bros?) is not helpful.
Showing posts with label superdelegates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label superdelegates. Show all posts
Sunday, May 29, 2016
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Drop Out, Bernie
It has become a widespread Democratic rallying cry: "The Republicans haven't compromised with Obama in seven and a half years, and the Nevertrumprepubs have started compromising with Trump in less than 3 weeks?!"
Yes indeed, many of them have.
Now if only we didn't have to keep waiting for you to compromise with reality, Bernie, so that we could focus the whole Democratic Party on stomping boo-boo in November.
The calls for you to drop out are increasing. But so far I haven't noticed any from within the group of your supporters. [UPDATE, 1:52 PM: I've found one.] A lot of them were saying before yesterday's primaries that it was essential for you to get 65% in Oregon, that if you didn't, it might be time to fold it up. Let's check: did you get 65% in Oregon? No, of course not: you got 54.8%. Uhh. How many of those very same supporters of yours, who were saying that if you didn't get 65% in Oregon, it would be time for an Agonizing Re-Appraisal of The Entire Situation, are today actually agonizing over such re-appraisals? I don't see one, and unfortunately, I'm not surprised.
How's that campaign to get Hillary's superdelegates going? Not well. So far 6 of Oregon's superdelegates are with Clinton and 1 for you. The Kentucky primary was practically a tie: oh, until you look at Kentucky's superdelegates. 3 of them are with Clinton and 0 for you. No superdelegates so far have switched from Hillary to Bernie. But at least 1 has switched from you to Hillary.
It's as if they're trying to tell you something, Bernie. It's as if they'd rather that the whole party started concentrating on November, instead of having to continue to deal with the endless temper tantrum your campaign has turned into.
It's not just that you've lost the nomination, Bernie. That happened months ago. You're also starting to lose what overall clout you had. And the longer you wait until you drop out, the more of it you're going to lose.
Just write out the platform you want, hand it to Debbie, and if you drop out, she'll take it, and wash your car, too. A week from now, maybe she won't.
But that's the easy part. The more difficult part would be to explain that eminently rational course of action to all of your idiot, die-hard, screaming, chair-throwing, Democratic-Party-HQ-defacing, death-threat-making followers. But for you, it'll only be difficult. For anyone else, it would be impossible.
But you're going to stick with your "until every last vote is counted" pledge. Aren't you.
Count this: Hillary has 1767 pledged delegates, you've got 1488. Hillary has 524 superdelegates, you've got 40. (# of superdelegates switching from one candidate to the other: see above.) Hillary has won 27 primaries, you've won 21. Hillary has gotten 12,728,414 votes, you've gotten 9,627,507. (That's 55.6% for her, 42.6% for you. Who's disrespecting the will of the voters?)
Number of people who've realized that it's impossible for you to win the nomination: rising fast.
Calls for you to drop out: increasing. Expressions of alarm at the anti-social behavior of many of your supporters: increasing. Comparisons of their behavior with that of Trump's supporters: increasing. Impression that both you and your supporters are out of touch with reality: spreading.
Days left until Nov 1: 167. One less every day. You've said your number one priority is stopping Trump. Time for you to actually start on that project: past.
Yes indeed, many of them have.
Now if only we didn't have to keep waiting for you to compromise with reality, Bernie, so that we could focus the whole Democratic Party on stomping boo-boo in November.
The calls for you to drop out are increasing. But so far I haven't noticed any from within the group of your supporters. [UPDATE, 1:52 PM: I've found one.] A lot of them were saying before yesterday's primaries that it was essential for you to get 65% in Oregon, that if you didn't, it might be time to fold it up. Let's check: did you get 65% in Oregon? No, of course not: you got 54.8%. Uhh. How many of those very same supporters of yours, who were saying that if you didn't get 65% in Oregon, it would be time for an Agonizing Re-Appraisal of The Entire Situation, are today actually agonizing over such re-appraisals? I don't see one, and unfortunately, I'm not surprised.
How's that campaign to get Hillary's superdelegates going? Not well. So far 6 of Oregon's superdelegates are with Clinton and 1 for you. The Kentucky primary was practically a tie: oh, until you look at Kentucky's superdelegates. 3 of them are with Clinton and 0 for you. No superdelegates so far have switched from Hillary to Bernie. But at least 1 has switched from you to Hillary.
It's as if they're trying to tell you something, Bernie. It's as if they'd rather that the whole party started concentrating on November, instead of having to continue to deal with the endless temper tantrum your campaign has turned into.
It's not just that you've lost the nomination, Bernie. That happened months ago. You're also starting to lose what overall clout you had. And the longer you wait until you drop out, the more of it you're going to lose.
Just write out the platform you want, hand it to Debbie, and if you drop out, she'll take it, and wash your car, too. A week from now, maybe she won't.
But that's the easy part. The more difficult part would be to explain that eminently rational course of action to all of your idiot, die-hard, screaming, chair-throwing, Democratic-Party-HQ-defacing, death-threat-making followers. But for you, it'll only be difficult. For anyone else, it would be impossible.
But you're going to stick with your "until every last vote is counted" pledge. Aren't you.
Count this: Hillary has 1767 pledged delegates, you've got 1488. Hillary has 524 superdelegates, you've got 40. (# of superdelegates switching from one candidate to the other: see above.) Hillary has won 27 primaries, you've won 21. Hillary has gotten 12,728,414 votes, you've gotten 9,627,507. (That's 55.6% for her, 42.6% for you. Who's disrespecting the will of the voters?)
Number of people who've realized that it's impossible for you to win the nomination: rising fast.
Calls for you to drop out: increasing. Expressions of alarm at the anti-social behavior of many of your supporters: increasing. Comparisons of their behavior with that of Trump's supporters: increasing. Impression that both you and your supporters are out of touch with reality: spreading.
Days left until Nov 1: 167. One less every day. You've said your number one priority is stopping Trump. Time for you to actually start on that project: past.
Thursday, May 12, 2016
If You Think Bernie Still Has A Chance, You Can't Do Math
To an article with the headline "Why Is Bernie Still Running," a reader responded, "Because he's won 10 of the last 15 states -- what part of that don't you understand?"
I don't even understand which 10 and 15 states you mean, because since March 15 there've been 17 state primaries plus Guam and Democrats Abroad (and not counting March 15 there've been 12 state primaries and Guam and Democrats Abroad), and Bernie has won 10 of those states plus Democrats Abroad, and Hillary won the other 7 states plus Guam.
If we count delegates instead of states -- which is what this is about, whether you understand why or not -- then since March 15, including March 15, Bernie has won 759 delegates, and Hillary has won 766. Before March 15, Hillary was ahead by 762 delegates, and now she's ahead by 769. When she gets 148 more, she will have clinched this.
Yes, I'm counting the superdelegates. Why? Because I haven't heard of one single superdelgate currently committed to Hillary who's mentioned a possibility that he or she might change his or her mind and switch to Bernie.
And why would they? The supergelegates are the very same Democratic politicians Bernie has been verbally abusing nonstop on his campaign, complaining that they've rigged the primaries and that they're corrupt, yada yada. I salute them for so rarely having lost their tempers in public so far when the topic has been Bernie.
148 to go. It's mathematically possible that Hillary might get all 148 of them before the California primary on June 7. Mathematically possible, but she won't. She also won't get none of them. She could get very nearly 148 more before June 7. On June 7, there will be 6 Democratic primaries with a total of 694 committed, non-super delegates at stake, including the 475 at stake in California. If Hillary wins 0 delegates anywhere from here on out except in California, she would need 31% of the committed, non-super California delegates. 148 is 31% of 475. Hillary is averaging 52.5% in polls of likely voters in the California primary. And since March, her numbers in California have been going steadily up.
I know that this is a useless post. I know that the world is divided into those who are paying no attention to the Democratic primaries, those who can do the math and have done it, and those who either can't do the math or refuse to do it, and also refuse to listen to those of us who can and have. But maybe the bright light I've shown on the ridiculousness of all this has given a chuckle to some of those of us who can and have, and we can use some good laughs.
I don't even understand which 10 and 15 states you mean, because since March 15 there've been 17 state primaries plus Guam and Democrats Abroad (and not counting March 15 there've been 12 state primaries and Guam and Democrats Abroad), and Bernie has won 10 of those states plus Democrats Abroad, and Hillary won the other 7 states plus Guam.
If we count delegates instead of states -- which is what this is about, whether you understand why or not -- then since March 15, including March 15, Bernie has won 759 delegates, and Hillary has won 766. Before March 15, Hillary was ahead by 762 delegates, and now she's ahead by 769. When she gets 148 more, she will have clinched this.
Yes, I'm counting the superdelegates. Why? Because I haven't heard of one single superdelgate currently committed to Hillary who's mentioned a possibility that he or she might change his or her mind and switch to Bernie.
And why would they? The supergelegates are the very same Democratic politicians Bernie has been verbally abusing nonstop on his campaign, complaining that they've rigged the primaries and that they're corrupt, yada yada. I salute them for so rarely having lost their tempers in public so far when the topic has been Bernie.
148 to go. It's mathematically possible that Hillary might get all 148 of them before the California primary on June 7. Mathematically possible, but she won't. She also won't get none of them. She could get very nearly 148 more before June 7. On June 7, there will be 6 Democratic primaries with a total of 694 committed, non-super delegates at stake, including the 475 at stake in California. If Hillary wins 0 delegates anywhere from here on out except in California, she would need 31% of the committed, non-super California delegates. 148 is 31% of 475. Hillary is averaging 52.5% in polls of likely voters in the California primary. And since March, her numbers in California have been going steadily up.
I know that this is a useless post. I know that the world is divided into those who are paying no attention to the Democratic primaries, those who can do the math and have done it, and those who either can't do the math or refuse to do it, and also refuse to listen to those of us who can and have. But maybe the bright light I've shown on the ridiculousness of all this has given a chuckle to some of those of us who can and have, and we can use some good laughs.
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Yesterday I Was Upset With Bernie For Not Having Dropped Out
But then early yesterday evening I turned off my computer and turned on my TV and channel-surfed between news stations, and I relaxed somewhat, because, apart from clips of Bernie telling cheering crowds that it wasn't over (it's over) and Jeff Weaver, Bernie's campaign manager, doing his usual reality-challenged schtick with interviewers looking increasingly tired of him, it was as if he had dropped out: with very few, very short exceptions, nobody was talking about Bernie, everybody was talking about Hillary vs The Donald. Anderson Cooper asked Hillary if she was upset with Bernie for not having dropped out, she very calmly said no, and they went back to talking about more important things.
The die-hard Bernie supporters make a lot of noise. But you have to wonder how many of them there are. It would be nice if Bernie made nice with Hillary and called on all of his supporters to support her. But if he doesn't, you have to wonder how many people will still be paying attention to him.
Bernie's great at shouting about how things should be changed. Hillary's great at planning, step-by-step, how to actually change them. And the biggest part of those plans is about bringing as many Democrats into political office with her in November as she can. No matter who's in the White House, the majority party in the Senate and House is going to make all the difference about how much or little the President can actually do. Those 500+ superdelegates who've committed to Hillary, as against 40-something for Bernie, can see that Hillary is committed to helping them and as many other Democrats as possible take office. And they can see that Bernie, amazingly, doesn't seem to care much at all about their campaigns. This isn't rocket science, even if it actually is over Bernie's head: political parties work together. That's what they're there for. Hillary's raising money for other Democrats. Bernie isn't. Hillary's stumping for other Democrats. Bernie isn't. This is really, really simple.
It boggles the mind to think that Bernie actually can't see why all of those superdelegates are with Hillary and not with him, but it almost looks that way.
It's not rocket science. Even if Bernie never gets it, a lot of Democrats who've voted for him in the primaries will. The New York primary was 16 days ago -- do you remember it? Remember how so many people were exclaiming about how 25,000 people turned out for one of Bernie's rallies in Brooklyn? In the primary, 116,327 in Brooklyn voted for Bernie, and 174,236 for Hillary. For every person who came to that rally, about 4 1/2 voted for Bernie in the primary and about 7 for Hillary. Manhattan, Queens and the Bronx were even more lopsided for Hillary than that. If it was about the number of people who come to the rallies, Bernie would've wrapped up the nomination a long time ago. So far, 12,553,043 have voted in the primaries for Hillary so far, and 9,440,066 for Bernie. So, even leaving the superdelegates completely out of it, she's kicking his ass. Whether he notices it or not.
I think I've been unnecessarily upsetting myself, by paying more attention to hardcore feelers of the Bern than they have merited.
The die-hard Bernie supporters make a lot of noise. But you have to wonder how many of them there are. It would be nice if Bernie made nice with Hillary and called on all of his supporters to support her. But if he doesn't, you have to wonder how many people will still be paying attention to him.
Bernie's great at shouting about how things should be changed. Hillary's great at planning, step-by-step, how to actually change them. And the biggest part of those plans is about bringing as many Democrats into political office with her in November as she can. No matter who's in the White House, the majority party in the Senate and House is going to make all the difference about how much or little the President can actually do. Those 500+ superdelegates who've committed to Hillary, as against 40-something for Bernie, can see that Hillary is committed to helping them and as many other Democrats as possible take office. And they can see that Bernie, amazingly, doesn't seem to care much at all about their campaigns. This isn't rocket science, even if it actually is over Bernie's head: political parties work together. That's what they're there for. Hillary's raising money for other Democrats. Bernie isn't. Hillary's stumping for other Democrats. Bernie isn't. This is really, really simple.
It boggles the mind to think that Bernie actually can't see why all of those superdelegates are with Hillary and not with him, but it almost looks that way.
It's not rocket science. Even if Bernie never gets it, a lot of Democrats who've voted for him in the primaries will. The New York primary was 16 days ago -- do you remember it? Remember how so many people were exclaiming about how 25,000 people turned out for one of Bernie's rallies in Brooklyn? In the primary, 116,327 in Brooklyn voted for Bernie, and 174,236 for Hillary. For every person who came to that rally, about 4 1/2 voted for Bernie in the primary and about 7 for Hillary. Manhattan, Queens and the Bronx were even more lopsided for Hillary than that. If it was about the number of people who come to the rallies, Bernie would've wrapped up the nomination a long time ago. So far, 12,553,043 have voted in the primaries for Hillary so far, and 9,440,066 for Bernie. So, even leaving the superdelegates completely out of it, she's kicking his ass. Whether he notices it or not.
I think I've been unnecessarily upsetting myself, by paying more attention to hardcore feelers of the Bern than they have merited.
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