I've mentioned before that I'm not a pessimist because optimism feels better, and because (I believe) I have free choice, (Some believe that they have made airtight logical cases that there is no free choice. I think this is merely an example of how logic is not yet perfect.) and I choose not be more miserable than I have to be. But I also believe that optimism is more logical than pessimism.
Let's take the case of Donald Trump. Pessimists are saying that humanity is doomed, that we're done, because Trump is the President-elect. I think that's an irrational outlook. Trump and his cheap hucksterism, and the stupidity which supports him, will be overcome, and thoroughly rejected. The only question is, how quickly. There are many perfectly sound reasons to believe that politics is Trump's last refuge, his last place to try to hide, and that he has not much further to go before he's out of politics for good.
The only age demographic in which Trump has more support than Hillary is 65 and older. In the 18-29 age group, Hillary leads by 60% to 30%. Trump's support is literally dying out while the Left wing grows.
More and more people are learning that Trump is a liar and a sociopath. Next up: the millions of people who believed in one or the other of his campaign promises. Some of those promises, like forcing Mexico to build a wall along the US-Mexico border, are obviously impossible to keep. Many more of his promises directly contradict other promises. Trump will burn millions of his voters with broken campaign promises at the least. It's quite conceivable that almost all of them will feel betrayed on one issue or another which is very important to them.
Democrats gained seats in both the House and Senate. Republicans still hold majorities in both houses -- but does Trump? Republican weasels who denounced Trump during the election campaign and suddenly started to support him after he won have been getting a lot of press coverage. Getting less space in the headlines are some Republicans who opposed Trump before the election and still oppose him. Senators McCain and Graham sound like they will be consistent, and continue to oppose Trump's policies, putting human decency and common sense above party loyalty when the party has gone insane. Republican opposition could grow as Trump's popularity erodes. Not every one of Trump's appointments is a shoe-in.
And Trump's appointments are only an issue if he actually takes office. He hasn't taken office yet. The recount still seems like a long shot to actually overturn the election and give the Presidency to Hillary, but who knows. The hope that a majority in the Electoral College will not actually vote for Trump seems very far-fetched -- at this point. But who knows how much less popular Trump will become before the electors vote? Who knows how many more bad deeds, including criminal deeds, and how much more disgusting behavior of his will come to light? [SOMEBODY LEAK THE #$%#&*$#&%$#$ "APPRENTICE" VIDEOS!] How many more utterly buffoonish tweets will he produce, how many more idiotic public statements?
People are not basically suckers for the truth, as Mr X asserted in Oliver Stone's JFK -- but if it's presented to them thoroughly and persistently enough, eventually some of them notice it. Keep digging, keep posting, keep leaking. Don't just give up.
Showing posts with label optimism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label optimism. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Sunday, May 31, 2015
"I Could Happen!" (Not A Typo. I Meant To Say "I")
That's what I said just now while fixing my coffee and imagining some nice things happening to me: instead of saying "It could happen!" I said "I could happen!"
And I think it was one of the finest Freudian slips I've ever performed. "I could happen!" emphasizes my own role in my future, while "It could happen!" emphasizes the role of chance. Would I still like to win the Nobel Prize in Literature or find a huge laundry bag stuffed with $1000 bills or several tons of gold, or both, or have Reese Witherspoon fall in love with me? Of course! But whether any of those things ever happen to me or not, the quality and utility of my life will still depend on what I do -- they will still depend on me "happening," or not happening so much.
I'm not in an iron lung just yet. I still have two arms and two legs -- although one of my knees hurts at the moment, but hey, I'm almost 54 years old, one or both of my knees are supposed to hurt now and then. This is the knee whose LCL I ripped 12 years ago. That's right: LCL, not ACL. I always hear about people tearing their anterior cruciate ligaments, but I tore my lateral collateral ligament, shortly after setting a personal best on the leg press: 10 reps at 600 lbs. There may be a connection there, between the 10 reps at 600 lbs (These weren't 3-inch "presses," I bent my knees well past 90 degrees each rep, and I wasn't pushing my thighs with my hands in the well-known arm-and-leg press, they were legit), and the LCL suddenly giving way weeks later.
You know what? Maybe there was no connection. I've never used a trainer, I've never discussed this with a doctor, what the Hell do I know? Maybe my LCL would've been better off if I'd done more heavy leg presses.
But that's not the point here, the point is that I can still go on. I don't have to lay around on my back all day today moaning and groaning because I've got a sore knee. I can research the human knee if I so choose. I can consult with trainers and MD's.
The point is that I can happen, in many different ways.
And so can you.
And I think it was one of the finest Freudian slips I've ever performed. "I could happen!" emphasizes my own role in my future, while "It could happen!" emphasizes the role of chance. Would I still like to win the Nobel Prize in Literature or find a huge laundry bag stuffed with $1000 bills or several tons of gold, or both, or have Reese Witherspoon fall in love with me? Of course! But whether any of those things ever happen to me or not, the quality and utility of my life will still depend on what I do -- they will still depend on me "happening," or not happening so much.
I'm not in an iron lung just yet. I still have two arms and two legs -- although one of my knees hurts at the moment, but hey, I'm almost 54 years old, one or both of my knees are supposed to hurt now and then. This is the knee whose LCL I ripped 12 years ago. That's right: LCL, not ACL. I always hear about people tearing their anterior cruciate ligaments, but I tore my lateral collateral ligament, shortly after setting a personal best on the leg press: 10 reps at 600 lbs. There may be a connection there, between the 10 reps at 600 lbs (These weren't 3-inch "presses," I bent my knees well past 90 degrees each rep, and I wasn't pushing my thighs with my hands in the well-known arm-and-leg press, they were legit), and the LCL suddenly giving way weeks later.
You know what? Maybe there was no connection. I've never used a trainer, I've never discussed this with a doctor, what the Hell do I know? Maybe my LCL would've been better off if I'd done more heavy leg presses.
But that's not the point here, the point is that I can still go on. I don't have to lay around on my back all day today moaning and groaning because I've got a sore knee. I can research the human knee if I so choose. I can consult with trainers and MD's.
The point is that I can happen, in many different ways.
And so can you.
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
The End Is Near, Certainly, But It's Not Here Yet
The end I'm talking about is not the judgement of a wrathful God visited upon a sinful humanity, but the end of the human species brought about by climate change and other effects of human pollution. It's interesting to me how much some green-minded people proclaiming this coming apocalypse sound like the more traditional Christians warning of the more traditional imminent doom. In both cases there's often a misanthropic satisfaction at the thought of a misbehaving humanity finally getting what it deserves.
Well, I'm an animal lover, and I think of us humans as animals, and I'm not rubbing my hands gleefully at the prospect of our doom. I'd rather try to avert that doom. Besides the occasional misanthropy, green apocalypticism also often shares with the older Christian variety a sense of the inevitable. ("It's much too late to save ourselves now, the trends toward catastrophe are irreversible.") This seems to me to irrationally ignore two huge factors in future climate conditions, both unknowns: how much human behavior will change, and how much green technology will improve. Green predictions that The End Is Near tend to assume a certain amount of continuation of current behaviors. I, on the other hand, see possibilities for huge rapid changes in human behavior as 1) people become more educated about climate science; 2) people notice that the Right's talking points about green energy have been lies: this stuff does work. They've been doing their best to get you to focus on this one wind-energy company, over here, which failed as a start-up, but eventually you're going to notice all the other green start-ups that are working. You may even notice the right-wingers who have noticed this and invested in green energy, presumably for the money and not for nobler reasons. A possible 3) could be a great dying-off of the Right. It's true that many of them have many children, but don't forget that children by no means always follow in their parents' political footsteps. Tipping points occur not only in the climate, but in human behavior as well, and in the history of human civilization such changes have not usually been forseen. They have tended to be surprising.
The sudden proliferation of wind farms and solar energy plants in the TV commercials of oil companies should make you stop and think. It certainly shouldn't make you suddenly have a warm and trusting feeling toward the oil companies, which is no doubt what they're going for, nor should it fool you into thinking that they're suddenly going green. It should demonstrate to you that even oil companies are starting to give up on trying to make green energy look ridiculous and impractical, and that should give you some idea of how drastically and suddenly the hardcore anti-green-energy demographic has shrunk.
Well, I'm an animal lover, and I think of us humans as animals, and I'm not rubbing my hands gleefully at the prospect of our doom. I'd rather try to avert that doom. Besides the occasional misanthropy, green apocalypticism also often shares with the older Christian variety a sense of the inevitable. ("It's much too late to save ourselves now, the trends toward catastrophe are irreversible.") This seems to me to irrationally ignore two huge factors in future climate conditions, both unknowns: how much human behavior will change, and how much green technology will improve. Green predictions that The End Is Near tend to assume a certain amount of continuation of current behaviors. I, on the other hand, see possibilities for huge rapid changes in human behavior as 1) people become more educated about climate science; 2) people notice that the Right's talking points about green energy have been lies: this stuff does work. They've been doing their best to get you to focus on this one wind-energy company, over here, which failed as a start-up, but eventually you're going to notice all the other green start-ups that are working. You may even notice the right-wingers who have noticed this and invested in green energy, presumably for the money and not for nobler reasons. A possible 3) could be a great dying-off of the Right. It's true that many of them have many children, but don't forget that children by no means always follow in their parents' political footsteps. Tipping points occur not only in the climate, but in human behavior as well, and in the history of human civilization such changes have not usually been forseen. They have tended to be surprising.
The sudden proliferation of wind farms and solar energy plants in the TV commercials of oil companies should make you stop and think. It certainly shouldn't make you suddenly have a warm and trusting feeling toward the oil companies, which is no doubt what they're going for, nor should it fool you into thinking that they're suddenly going green. It should demonstrate to you that even oil companies are starting to give up on trying to make green energy look ridiculous and impractical, and that should give you some idea of how drastically and suddenly the hardcore anti-green-energy demographic has shrunk.
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