How The Tax Bill Actually Could Be a Win For the GOP

I finally figured out one way that passing the most unpopular piece of major Federal legislation since the 1980's actually could be considered a win for the GOP. It still doesn't make them look like better human beings. In fact, if anything, it might make them look a bit worse.

You may recall that a few days ago there was a strange story about Paul Ryan: a supposedly reliable source said that the Speaker was very moody and had talked about not running for re-election in 2018, and ending his political career.

Then very quickly after that Ryan denied that this story was true. He said that everything was wonderful and that he had no plans to retire. But a lot of reporters continued to act as if the story hadn't been a mistake at all. And if anyone might be in a position to know where the story had come from and how reliable it was -- it's those reporters.

Now, all reliable polling on the planet shows that the Republicans just keep getting less and less popular, and that many Republican members of Congress might be retired after the 2018 mid-terms -- voluntarily or not. Whether Ryan runs or not, the Speaker of the House might well be a Democrat after the mid-terms. Their sinking popularity might mean that this tax bill -- if it passes. It hasn't passed yet -- might not just be the first big bill passed by the GOP during Trump's term in office -- it might be the first and the last.

And so, it might very well be that many Republican Senators and Congresspeople regard this bill as their retirement program, their golden parachutes. They feel they can't impeach Trump -- it doesn't make sense to me that they feel can't impeach him, but it seems more and more as if they feel that they just can't. Trump is extremely unpopular, and getting more unpopular, and he is dragging the rest of the GOP down with him. And so the Republicans in the Senate and House are cashing in, as big as they can, before the voters retire them.

Now, that's certainly evil, but it's a rational sort of evil, based on a realistic assumption about the future: the assumption that the Democrats will control Congress after the 2018 mid-terms, and that if the Republicans want to get richer by ripping of the US in a huge way, they have to do it right now, because right now is going to be their last chance.

But I could be completely wrong. Time after time I've given the Republican leadership way too much credit: Assuming that they wouldn't be dumb enough to actually impeach Bill Clinton in 1998 with the ridiculous case that Kenneth Starr handed them. Assuming that they would manage to nominate someone other than Trump. Assuming that they would impeach Trump rather than let Trump destroy their political careers along with his own. Etc, etc. Perhaps, again, in this case, they're simply less fact-based than I could imagine, and they really believe that their tax bill will lead to budget surpluses instead of deficits, and that they will win instead of lose in the mid-terms, and that Trump will be re-elected and go down in history as the greatest American President of all time, and that Trump and Sarah Huckabee are honest and straightforward. Etc.

Again, though -- the bill hasn't passed yet. There still is time for individual Republican legislators to figure that their prospects for a political career in the future are worth more than what they would make from the bill. Or even to have a fit of conscience, and to stand up and say that this bill is wrong and disgusting and that they can't vote for it for those reasons. No, I don't think that's likely. But you never know. It might play very well politically for some individuals in the GOP. And they actually are human beings.

The Sky May Actually Not Be Falling

In a piece for the New York Times, Jonathan Weisman fears that the House may lurch even further to the Right in November:

"In districts where generally mild-mannered Republicans are exiting, their likely replacements may [bla bla bla doom, gloom, conventional 'wisdom,' bla bla bla]"

Weisman gives no consideration to the possibility that people who voted for those relatively centrist Republicans will vote against the extremist yahoos who beat the incumbents in the primaries, or simply not vote.

And it seems that just about every single "pundit" in Washington assumes that Democratic turnout will be low. "Well, Democratic turnout is ALWAYS low in the mid-terms." Well, before 2009 an African-American had never been President. Before 2011 no-one who occupied a seat in Congress ever said some of the stupid things Tea Partiers say. (Maybe if you go back to the 1830's or so.) Things CHANGE. A lot of the people who voted Democratic in 2012 were first-time voters. It makes no sense to simply assume that they will tend to sit out the mid-terms as Democratic voters have in the past.

Nor does it make sense to assume that a significant number of Democratic voters who've sat out previous mid-terms have not noticed the Republican extremists and become alarmed and politicized.

I'll tell you one thing which has happened over and over in previous elections and could happen again in November: a great many Washington political "wizards" could be proven completely wrong. Remember all the "geniuses" who were convinced that the race between Obama and Romney would be close, and that the Republicans would make huge gains in both houses of Congress in 2012? (Just in case you didn't notice: in 2012 the Democrats gained 2 seats in the Senate and 8 in the House. And the election between Obama and Romney wasn't close. Just the same way that the Earth wasn't destroyed the way that a lot of idiots said that a Mayan calendar said it would be.)

Get out and vote Democrat, and send all these scary rightwing yahoos home.

I Look At People Like Ted Cruz, And It Just Makes Me Want To Say --

-- non scholae, sed vitae discimus. Suos cultores scientia coronat. Citius, altius, fortius. Condemnant quod non intellegunt. Castigat ridendo mores. Alenda lux ubi orta libertas. Alis grave nil. Carthago delenda est.

Let's USE This Vast Political Capital The Republicans Have Just Handed Us

Let's go after every single Republican office-holder -- unless you can think of a Republican currently holding public office who's stood up to the Tea Party since 2009. Yeah, I can't think of one either. Yes, some of them are critical of the Tea Party now, but look at the size of the clusterfuck it took for them to speak up. Look at what was acceptable to all of them until the writing was on the wall about the 2012 elections, and then to all but a tiny handful of them. The Tea Party belongs to the Republican Party. Let's make them own it. All of them. Let's not let this very recent turn toward bipartisanship make us forget the 5 years before the last 3 weeks.

And please, my fellow Democrats, let's stop this awful pathetic whining about how this or that Republican Senator or Representative or Governor or Councilman or judge or dog-catcher is untouchable. None of them are untouchable after this shutdown debacle. Let's not just win some seats in 2014 and 2016, let's crush the GOP as it now once and for all, so that what emerges is either a GOP as unrecognizably liberal by today's standards as today's is unrecognizably reactionary by the standards of several decades ago, or something like a political landscape where the Republican and Green Parties have swapped places in terms of relevance and clout, a US where it's Democrat against Green instead of Democrat against Republican. (Or better yet, of course, a change in the Constitution to base our government on proportional representation, but at this point the eradication of far-right political power looks like a nearer, more attainable goal.)

They're not untouchable. Let's find a brilliant, charismatic rainmaker in his or her early 20's and run him or her against John Boehner. That's a no-lose proposition for the Democrats because the whiz kid will either actually win, or win enough votes against the sitting Speaker of the House to brighten up any 25-year-old's resume.

Let's go after em all. You may say I'm a crazy wild-eyed dreamer. I say that the Republicans are in such a mess that it'd be crazy to consider any one of them to be invulnerable.

These Are The 18 Senators And 144 Representatives Who Voted Last Night AGAINST Ending The Government Shutdown

Senators Tom Coburn R OK
John Cornyn R TX
Michael D. Crapo R ID
Ted Cruz R TX
Michael B. Enzi R WY
Charles E. Grassley R IA
Dean Heller R NV
Ron Johnson R WI
Mike Lee R UT
Rand Paul R KY
Jim Risch R ID
Pat Roberts R KS
Marco Rubio R FL
Tim Scott R SC
Jeff Sessions R AL
Richard C. Shelby R AL
Patrick J. Toomey R PA
David Vitter R LA

And Representatives Robert B. Aderholt R AL-4
Justin Amash R MI-3
Mark Amodei R NV-2
Michele Bachmann R MN-6
Andy Barr R KY-6
Joe L. Barton R TX-6
Kerry Bentivolio R MI-11
Rob Bishop R UT-1
Diane Black R TN-6
Marsha Blackburn R TN-7
Kevin Brady R TX-8
Jim Bridenstine R OK-1
Mo Brooks R AL-5
Paul Broun R GA-10
Larry Bucshon R IN-8
Michael C. Burgess R TX-26
John Campbell R CA-45
John Carter R TX-31
Bill Cassidy R LA-6
Steven J. Chabot R OH-1
Jason Chaffetz R UT-3
Chris Collins R NY-27
Doug Collins R GA-9
K. Michael Conaway R TX-11
John Culberson R TX-7
Ron DeSantis R FL-6
Jeffrey Denham R CA-10
Scott DesJarlais R TN-4
Sean Duffy R WI-7
Jeffrey Duncan R SC-3
John J. Duncan Jr. R TN-2
Renee Ellmers R NC-2
Blake Farenthold R TX-27
Stephen Fincher R TN-8
Chuck Fleischmann R TN-3
John Fleming R LA-4
Bill Flores R TX-17
J. Randy Forbes R VA-4
Virginia Foxx R NC-5
Trent Franks R AZ-8
Scott Garrett R NJ-5
Bob Gibbs R OH-7
Phil Gingrey R GA-11
Louie Gohmert R TX-1
Robert W. Goodlatte R VA-6
Paul Gosar R AZ-4
Trey Gowdy R SC-4
Kay Granger R TX-12
Sam Graves R MO-6
Tom Graves R GA-14
Morgan Griffith R VA-9
Ralph M. Hall R TX-4
Andy Harris R MD-1
Vicky Hartzler R MO-4
Jeb Hensarling R TX-5
George Holding R NC-13
Richard Hudson R NC-8
Tim Huelskamp R KS-1
Bill Huizenga R MI-2
Randy Hultgren R IL-14
Duncan D. Hunter R CA-50
Robert Hurt R VA-5
Bill Johnson R OH-6
Sam Johnson R TX-3
Walter B. Jones R NC-3
Jim Jordan R OH-4
Steve King R IA-4
Jack Kingston R GA-1
Doug LaMalfa R CA-1
Raul Labrador R ID-1
Doug Lamborn R CO-5
James Lankford R OK-5
Robert E. Latta R OH-5
Billy Long R MO-7
Frank D. Lucas R OK-3
Blaine Luetkemeyer R MO-3
Cynthia M. Lummis R WY-1
Kenny Marchant R TX-24
Tom Marino R PA-10
Thomas Massie R KY-4
Michael McCaul R TX-10
Tom McClintock R CA-4
Mark Meadows R NC-11
Luke Messer R IN-6
John L. Mica R FL-7
Candice S. Miller R MI-10
Jeff Miller R FL-1
Markwayne Mullin R OK-2
Mick Mulvaney R SC-5
Randy Neugebauer R TX-19
Kristi Noem R SD-1
Richard Nugent R FL-11
Alan Nunnelee R MS-1
Pete Olson R TX-22
Steven Palazzo R MS-4
Steve Pearce R NM-2
Scott Perry R PA-4
Tom Petri R WI-6
Joe Pitts R PA-16
Ted Poe R TX-2
Mike Pompeo R KS-4
Bill Posey R FL-8
Tom Price R GA-6
Trey Radel R FL-19
Tom Reed R NY-23
Jim Renacci R OH-16
Tom Rice R SC-7
Martha Roby R AL-2
Phil Roe R TN-1
Mike D. Rogers R AL-3
Dana Rohrabacher R CA-48
Todd Rokita R IN-4
Tom Rooney R FL-17
Dennis Ross R FL-15
Keith Rothfus R PA-12
Ed Royce R CA-39
Paul D. Ryan R WI-1
Matt Salmon R AZ-5
Mark Sanford R SC-1
Steve Scalise R LA-1
David Schweikert R AZ-6
Austin Scott R GA-8
F. James Sensenbrenner R WI-5
Pete Sessions R TX-32
Jason Smith R MO-8
Lamar Smith R TX-21
Steve Southerland R FL-2
Chris Stewart R UT-2
Steve Stockman R TX-36
Marlin Stutzman R IN-3
William M. Thornberry R TX-13
Michael R. Turner R OH-10
Ann Wagner R MO-2
Tim Walberg R MI-7
Greg Walden R OR-2
Jackie Walorski R IN-2
Randy Weber R TX-14
Brad Wenstrup R OH-2
Lynn Westmoreland R GA-3
Roger Williams R TX-25
Joe Wilson R SC-2
Rob Woodall R GA-7
Kevin Yoder R KS-3
Ted Yoho R FL-3

All Republicans. Every single one, all 18 of those Senators and all 144 of those Representatives.

Didn't vote: Senator James M. Inhofe R OK, and Representatives Carolyn McCarthy D NY-4
Bobby L. Rush D IL-1
C. W. Bill Young R FL-13

Can Republican Congresspeople Literally Not Do Math --

-- or at least, not when they're drunk?

"There are not votes in the House to pass a clean CR," John Boehner said today on ABC's This Week. But there are. As far as I know, no Democrat is against such a bill. I'm not just talking about House Democrats. I'm talking about the Democrats in the House, the Senate, the White House, and Democratic Governors and mayors and councilmen and -women and part-time volunteers such as myself. NONE of us, given the chance, would vote against a clean bill and keep the shutdown going. Besides 100% of the House Democrats, 21 House Republicans have said they would vote for a clean bill. Which means, obviously, that my question at the beginning of this post is unfair: around 9% of the House Republicans, 21 of them, can do math well enough to see that the government shutdown is hurting their party tremendously. That leaves around 91% percent of them who can't crunch the numbers well enough to see that the shutdown is causing their already-leaky ship to sink like a stone.

That 91% of Congressional Republicans wouldn't be enough to stop a clean bill on their own. Because the GOP currently occupies more than 50% of the House Seats, however, a little over 0.4% of the House Republicans, a little over 0.2% of the entire House, the Speaker of the House, that boozy, teary faced Cowardly Lion, John Boehner, is not allowing the vote. Many so-called pundits allege that Boehner is not stupid, and that his actions comprise a masterly balancing act between the Tea Party and the realtively-sane parts of the GOP, but maybe we should take him at his word, maybe he's really too dumb to see that all 200 Democrats in the House plus 21 Republicans add up to more than enough to pass a clean bill and end the shutdown just as soon as he decides to hold the vote.

Or maybe I'm just too dumb to see the intricacies of a "masterly balancing act." Yeah, right. Boehner's refusal to get this done looks like nothing but stupidity to me. The Tea Party is done, they're toast. Around 9% of the House Republicans have grasped this and are doing their best to wash the Tea Party stink off of themselves. The longer Boehner waits, the harder it will be for him ever to disassociate himself from them.

When Republicans Are In Power They're Scary. But These Days They're Kinda Hilarious

After a fairly disastrous attempt for the Republican nomination for President and a close re-election to the House of Representatives in 2012, it's rumored that Michelle Bachmann is planning to run against Al Franken for US Senator from Minnesota in 2014. If that's true, it's funny. She'd get creamed. She'd be headed for the celebrity-wrestling circuit along with Sarah Palin and Dick Morris.

Karl Rove admits that the main component of the effort of what is left of his political machine to stop Ashley Judd's budding political career will be to continue to make fun of her. He said exactly that, on Fox News. This is great news for Judd. Look at Bill and Hillary Clinton, both of whom Rove's flying monkeys relentlessly and substancelessly attacked for decades, until they are now perhaps the two most beloved politicians in the US. The Clintons didn't do that all by themselves, Karl: you helped by being such an icky troll with no actual arguments against them. Thanks.

Mitch McConnel, against whom Judd may run in 2014 -- hey, I don't even have to tell you all the ways Mitch is helping out the Democrats.

From the big big big-time to the teensy small-time, Republicans just keep on shooting themselves in the foot: for example, some of you may have noticed a lot of right-wing ads on my blog. Different readers will get different ads to look at, but when I look at my own blog on my own computer at home, it seems that very often, perhaps as often as not, I see a lot of ridiculous fear-mongering ads here with headlines like "What Is Obama Not Telling Us?" and "Why Is China Hoarding Gold?" The real question is, "Why Are These Reactionary Doofuses Advertising On My Blog?" I don't get to pick the ads which appear here; there's a feature where I can supposedly block certain categories of ads; I tried that for a while but it didn't seem to work and so I just gave up. Google is a big dumb lumbering beast, and conservatives -- well, you know. Maybe if I keep working hard on this blog, and I'm fortunate enough that it grows to a certain level of popularity, the people who put the ads on it will begin to realize that my audience mostly doesn't belong to the John Birch Society.

There are a lot of different terms I could use to describe the political Right in the US these days. One thing I honestly cannot say about them at the moment is that they look like winners to me. The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight, is more what they look like.

Hi-Ho, Mr Rove! Rrrring the Bells!

Salon.com reports that Karl Rove has accused President Obama of wanting a civil war within the GOP.

Well clutch my pearls, Karl! A lot of us want to see conflict within the Republican Party! Or to be more precise, we've been seeing it, and loving it. We would like very much for the GOP to destroy itself, leading to decades of Democratic domination of the US, or even better, competition between Democrats and some party like the Greens for control, with the Republicans as dead as the Federalists. Yeah, that'd be great, thank you very much, Mr Rove! That'd be extra-swell! The President, naturally, because he is the President, must be discreet about wanting to see the GOP terminally implode, just as he must be discreet about so many other things. But us little people? We've formed into circles, Karl, and joined our little hands, and in our squeaky little voices we're singing:

Ding-dong, the witch is dead
Which old witch? The wicked witch!
Ding-dong, the wicked witch is deeeeeeaaaaaaaad!