Wednesday, January 27, 2016

November Election Questions

Constantly pundits -- true: not all of them -- opine that Trump will not be the Republican Presidential nominee, and it seems more and more that they're simply unwilling to think that it's possible because the possibility appalls them, and not because they have crystal balls.

But if the GOP does nominate Trump, how many Republicans will vote for the Democratic nominee? And how many would vote for Hillary but not Bernie, or vice-versa?

There's been plenty of speculation about Trump running 3rd-party, but how about the other way around, if Trump is the GOP nominee and a more mainstream Republican runs 3rd party? Such a 3rd-party run would be a way for Republicans to stop Trump without explicitly admitting that they were handing the Presidency to Hillary or Bernie.

I don't like Bernie. I think the distance he is to the left of Hillary is greatly exaggerated for some reason. I think that distance is pretty much imaginary, as is Hillary's lack of liberal credentials. Who's done the most to extend health insurance coverage to more people in the US? No, not Barack -- Hillary. Who's been the most powerful advocate for women, minorities, the disabled? Hillary. All she does is actually get stuff done.

It seems to me that the only way a Republican can win the White House in November will be if Bernie turns out to be even more stupidly egotistical and destructive than he seems to me to be, and runs 3rd-party. The average voter doesn't see that a 3rd-party vote is in effect a vote for the candidate you like least. A 3rd-party vote for Bernie could be a vote for Trump. Such considerations are incredibly clear and simple to me, but, frustrating as it is, they apparently are beyond the average voter. Many of the people who voted for Nader in 2000 are both too stupid to do the math it takes to see that they cost Gore the Presidency, and too stupid to grasp how much better a Gore Presidency would've been than what we got with W, which is truly too fucking stupid to pour piss out of a boot, but what are you going to do, people are stupid.

It would be unforgivable if these considerations turn out to be beyond a US Senator who caucuses with Democrats like Bernie, or unimportant to him. I would never be able to forgive Bernie if his ego turns to be more important to him than stopping the damage that Trump would do as President. If Hillary gets the Democratic nomination, and I think she will, and a good damn thing too, then what Bernie does will be extremely important -- not just in terms of not doing what he has said he won't do, the nuclear option: a 3rd-party run -- but also how soon he drops out and how energetically he campaigns for Hillary. Now and very very energetically would be just fine with me, Bernie, you schmuck!

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