Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Still Don't Care About The New Star Wars, Still Find The Economics Interesting

Box Office Mojo's early estimate on Sunday of the box-office take for the first four days of the new Star Wars movie, Thursday-night sneak previews through Sunday, was low: they estimated $517 million. They've since adjusted that up to $529 million. After Monday's receipts were added, it's up to $610.8 million, placing it at #102 on Box Office Mojo's list of all-time worldwide box office leaders.

Friday is Christmas. The combination of Friday and Christmas and a one-week-old blockbuster movie is leading to predictions that The Force Awakens will do very well on its second weekend. The movie has gotten extremely good reviews, which makes me tend to agree with these optimistic expectations. By the end of Sunday the 27th, the movie may well be among the all-time worldwide top 20 with over a billion dollars at the box office. (Currently Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace is #20 with $1,027 billion.) Certainly, at the very least, it will break the top 50 (Current #50: Independence Day, with $817.4 million.)

It seems possible that it could be in the top 50 before the Christmas weekend even starts.

When the 2005 version of King Kong was released, I was making similarly detailed remarks and predictions about its box office figures. Somebody asked me: Why was I going on and on about this? Was I getting a piece of the movie's revenues? And suddenly I became very embarrassed and stopped talking about it. No, I wasn't getting a piece of King Kong's earnings, and no, I'm not getting a piece of The Force Awakens' revenues. I'm doing this because I find it interesting because I'm autistic. In 2005 I didn't know yet that I was autistic. I'm becoming a little more comfortable with who I am. And other people, of course, can take it or leave it.

PS, 3:52PM: Box Office Mojo now includes the figures for Tuesday, yesterday, and The Force Awakens is up to $689.4 million, 81st place all-time. Holy cow, $78.6 million on a Tuesday.

PPS, 24. December 2015, 1:02 PM: Box Office Mojo now includes the figures for Wednesday. The new one is up to $765.9 million, #60 all-time. $76.5 million on a Wednesday. If it manages more than $51.5 today it will, in fact, enter the Christmas weekend in the top 50.

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